Control of both chambers of the U.S. Congress places Democrats in a position to constrain President Trump regarding his freer use of tariff taxes on Chinese products during the remaining two years of his term, analysts say. This could be a potential blow to Trump, who resorted to tariffs during a fierce U.S.-China trade war before the two sides reached an agreement that expires in January. If Democrats constrain Trump, he 'will not be any less capable of using a tariff card in negotiations with China,' said Wu Xinbo, dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai. However, Democrats must weigh their actions against the popularity of Trump's tariffs among American businesses. Congress will 'try every opportunity to undermine (Trump's policies) in the next two years,' said Drew Thompson, senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore. But Democrats will have to proceed carefully regarding further restrictions on tariffs which 'are popular among unions, workers of color, and small businesses...which have historically been an electoral base for Democrats,' said Thompson. Congress will be 'less inclined to support measures that would suddenly escalate pressure on China if this risked increasing costs for American consumers and businesses or increasing the likelihood of conflict,' said Patricia Kim, foreign policy expert at the Brookings Institution in Washington. [1]
The Taiwan issue, the democratic island supported by the U.S. and claimed by Beijing, could be a 'game-changer'. [1]
The Taiwan issue, the democratic island supported by the U.S. and claimed by Beijing, could be a 'game-changer'. [1]
As the story develops
Update
The Impact of the Democratic Victory in the Interim Elections on U.S.-China Relations
The Democrats' decisive victory in the U.S. midterm elections, which grants them control over Congress, reshapes the dynamics of relations with China, offering both opportunities and significant challenges for Beijing. An analysis published by CNBC and picked up by bursa.ro highlights that the Democratic Party's takeover of both chambers of Congress increases the risk of tensions in relations with China, particularly regarding Taiwan, and accelerates competition in the technology sector. [2]
Update
U.S.-China: New Tensions and Pragmatism After the Democrats' Victory
Following the Democrats' decisive victory in the U.S. midterm elections, the label 'Trump's total defeat' went viral on the Chinese microblogging platform Weibo, accumulating over 70 million views. However, officials in Beijing quickly signaled continuity in policy, with Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning describing the elections as a 'domestic affair' of the U.S. and expressing confidence in moving forward with understandings reached between leaders Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. The commercial transaction and the stabilization of relations, marked by the period of strategic stability and American restraint regarding chip restrictions or support for Taiwan, will persist, according to experts, at least until the end of the U.S. president's term. [3]
Democratic control of both chambers of Congress increases the risk of tensions, particularly regarding Taiwan and the acceleration of the technological race, according to a CNBC analysis picked up by bursa.ro. Congress will attempt to stir up administration policies and subject transactions with Beijing to stricter scrutiny, including regarding tariff exemptions and compliance with export controls. Legislative measures such as the 'Match Act' will guide the identification of Chinese chip equipment and manufacturing facilities, underscoring the need for allies to adopt similar controls to those of the U.S. However, many experts in China believe that pragmatism will prevail, a new 'balance' forcing cooperation, because unilateral sanctions would affect both sides in a mutual loss scenario. [3]
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